OBX swing tradingpaper phase

Context: 71% up its 52w range (257.40–313.60), 5.2% off the 52w high. +7.0% over 3 months, +14% over 1 year — a steady, orderly uptrend. Volume at 0.73× the 90-day average — calm tape.

What would qualify: a drift into 292.55–277.47 (the 3–8% band from the 301.60 high). The top of that band sits almost exactly on the rising 50d MA (292.91) — good confluence for a shallow pullback entry. RSI (54.6) is already in band and the calendar is clear until Oct 21. This is the only name where a single condition separates it from a valid setup.

Notes: Steady uptrend, currently resting right on the 20d MA (297.42). No action tonight; re-check after each close.

Context: 84% up its 52w range (226.40–422.30), 7.4% off the 52w high. +6.3% over 3 months, +44% over 1 year — a mature, strong uptrend. Volume on the recent dip ran at 0.71× the 90-day average: a quiet pullback, not heavy selling.

What would qualify: a 3–8% pullback from the 398.70 high = the 386.70–366.80 zone, ideally meeting the rising 20d MA (now ~353 and climbing toward it), with RSI cooling from 67.9 into 40–55. Then the standard trigger: green candle closing above the previous day's high. Calendar is clear until Oct 28.

Notes: Strong post-Q2 momentum — up ~14% above the 50d MA after the Jul 22 report. The Jul 27–28 dip to ~377 bounced hard today (+3.9%, close above the previous day's high — trigger-shaped candle), but the dip never reached the 20d MA and RSI never cooled into the 40–55 band, so it is not our setup. The right move is patience: a genuine 3–8% pullback toward the rising 20d MA (~353 and climbing) with RSI cooling to 40–55 would be a textbook candidate. Chasing strength here is exactly what rule 2 exists to prevent.

Context: 34% up its 52w range (228.50–427.00), 31% below the 52w high. −2.6% over 3 months, −4.3% over 1 year, but the last two months look like a base forming around 290–300. Volume 0.91× the 90-day average — unremarkable, consistent with basing.

What would qualify: reclaim the 50d MA at 301.60 (only +1.9% away — the nearest trend-repair on the list) and hold there long enough for the MA to flatten and turn up (roughly 2–4 weeks of sideways-to-up price action), then wait for the first 3–8% pullback. RSI (51.4) and calendar (Oct 29) already pass.

Notes: 14.5% below the May 6 high (346.60), basing sideways around 290–300 since the Q2 report. Close to the 50d MA from below — the first watchlist name that could repair rule 1 if it breaks and holds above ~302 and the MA flattens out. Check again in a week or two.

Context: only 35% up its 52w range (179.40–245.80), 17.5% below the 52w high — this "uptrend" is a recovery inside a larger down-move, which makes it the weakest of the three trend-passers. Flat over 3 months (−0.1%), +4.6% over 1 year. Volume 0.62× the 90-day average.

What would qualify: the 3–8% band from the 206.60 high is 200.40–190.07, and price (≈202) sits just above it with the 20d MA (193) inside the band — technically close. But RSI needs to cool from 63 into 40–55, and the Aug 18 report blocks all entries from ~Aug 4, so the realistic window is post-earnings.

Notes: Effectively off the table until after the Aug 18 report: even if a pullback forms next week, rule 4 will block entry from ~Aug 4 onward. Re-evaluate after earnings — a post-report pullback in an intact uptrend would be the next realistic window.

Context: 41% up its 52w range (60.66–120.40) but 29% below the 52w high after a −17.4% three-month slide. Volume 0.88× the 90-day average — steady selling, no capitulation spike and no accumulation signal either.

What would qualify: price back above the 50d MA (97.71, currently 14% overhead) and that MA turning upward — realistically weeks-to-months of base-building before the checklist is worth running again. Nothing to do until then; check monthly rather than nightly.

Notes: This is a breakdown, not a pullback: 28.9% below the June 3 high (120.40). Whatever the reason (aluminum, China), it is a falling knife by our rules. Needs to reclaim the 50d MA and turn it upward before it's even worth a checklist. Do not bottom-fish.

Context: the weakest chart on the list — only 18% up its 52w range (125.20–178.70), 25% below the 52w high, −10.4% over 3 months, −15.3% over 1 year. Volume is running at 1.34× the 90-day average while falling — elevated selling pressure, the opposite of a healthy quiet pullback.

What would qualify: reclaim the 50d MA at 144.64 (+7.4% overhead) and turn it upward. Given the volume pattern, this needs a long repair; lowest priority on the watchlist.

Notes: 18.4% below the May 19 high (164.50) and still under a falling 50d MA after the Q2 report. Long repair needed; low priority for the coming weeks.

Context: 39% up its 52w range (353.40–599.40), 25% below the 52w high after a −15.4% three-month slide (though still +16% over 1 year). Volume 0.80× the 90-day average. The two-day bounce off 427 has not changed the structure.

What would qualify: reclaim the 50d MA at 463.24 (+2.9% overhead) and turn it upward — closer than it looks in percent terms, but the MA is the steepest-falling on the list, so it needs sustained strength, not a bounce. RSI (49.2) and calendar (Oct 22) already pass.

Notes: 18.6% below the May 5 high (552.80) with the steepest-falling 50d MA on the list. Bounced the last two sessions from the 427 low, but a two-day bounce inside a downtrend is not a setup. Stay away until the trend repairs.

Context: 71% up its 52w range (240.60–373.80), 10.2% off the 52w high. −6.2% over 3 months but +31% over 1 year — a strong longer-term chart digesting a pullback. Volume 0.70× the 90-day average: quiet, constructive.

What would qualify: the 50d MA (327.09) turning upward is the gating condition — price already sits above it. After that, a fresh 3–8% pullback from whatever high forms, with RSI cooling from 57.7 into 40–55. Structurally the second-closest name after DNB, but remember it shares the Energy slot with EQNR.

Notes: The most tempting near-miss: price reclaimed the 50d MA and today printed a strong candle. But the MA is still declining, so the uptrend is not confirmed — and shading a rule on trade #1 of the paper sample would defeat the whole exercise. If the 50d MA turns up in the coming weeks and a 3–8% pullback forms, this becomes a real candidate. Also remember: shares the Energy slot with EQNR — only one of the two can ever be open.